Has the tide turned in the U.S.-Australia swimming rivalry?
While Team USA has dominated in the pool throughout Olympic history, Australia has made up some serious ground over the last few Summer Games.
The U.S. has finished with the most total swimming medals and most golds at eight straight Olympics, with Australia second in the medal count at five of those Games. That was the case three years in Tokyo, when Team USA took home 30 total medals and 11 golds to Australia's 21 medals and nine golds.
Australia could shake things up in Paris, though, according to NBC's Steve Kornacki.
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As Kornacki explains in the video above, NBC Olympics' research projection model predicted that Team USA would earn more overall swimming medals, but that Australia would take home the most swimming golds at an Olympics for the first time since it hosted the 1956 Games in Melbourne.
NBC Olympics projections entering Paris
| Medals | Team USA | Australia |
| Gold | 7 | 11 |
| Silver | 17 | 4 |
| Bronze | 5 | 7 |
| Total | 29 | 22 |
Through four full days of competition, the projections seem pretty spot on, with the U.S. having the overall advantage but Australia out in front with golds.
Swimming medal totals through Day 4 of Paris Olympics
| Medals | Team USA | Australia |
| Gold | 2 | 4 |
| Silver | 7 | 3 |
| Bronze | 6 | 1 |
| Total | 15 | 8 |
"At this point, probably fair to say the U.S. is the underdog, a very unfamiliar position, in the gold medal chase, but they have some big opportunities," Kornacki said.
Several of those big opportunities will come from two of the most decorated swimmers in Olympic history.
Katie Ledecky has finals left for two of her signature events, the 800m and 1500m freestyle. Caeleb Dressel could also shake things up by winning the 50m freestyle and 100m butterfly, just as he did in Tokyo.
"If [Dressel] can turn what are two projected silver medals now into two actual gold medals, the U.S. is going to have a good chance of maybe pulling that upset and keeping that gold streak alive," Kornacki said.
