VCU solidifies at-large resume following Saint Louis victory originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
A span of four days has revealed the life of a mid-major college basketball program. Once solidly in the tournament field, then on the bubble with their best player sidelined, and finally back in firm control of their tournament fate is what the VCU Rams experienced this past week.
It all started with their shocking loss to longtime rival George Mason on Saturday. A bad loss (Q3 by the NCAA's metric system) took VCU's resume -- which didn't have a signature win -- and put it in question, adding the team's second bad loss of the year.
Without Atlantic 10 Player of the Year candidate Nah'Shon 'Bones' Hyland for the immediate future with an ankle injury, the Rams showed up with their second-biggest win on the season. Welcoming the A-10 preseason favorite into the Seigel Center, the Rams won a close contest over the Saint Louis Bilikens in the waning moments. Without Hyland, and off the loss, it was an impressive win.
Moving to 8-0 in Quadrant 2 opportunities, VCU gained back all the momentum (and metrics) from the George Mason loss. The program now sits No. 31 in the NET, 44th in KenPom, 43rd in Barttovik, 63rd in BPI.
Most bracketologists had the Rams on the good side of the bubble prior to their Saint Louis win. Now, not the SLU win gives VCU more Q1-Q2 combined wins than most of its competitors on the bubble.
[Note: These bracketology projections were all prior to VCU's win over SLU]
ESPN: Last Four Byes, No. 11 seed
CBS: First Four Out
SB Nation: Last Four In, No. 12 seed
Bracketville: Last Four In, No. 11 seed
As the Rams try and navigate through the final stretch of the year and potentially the A-10 Tournament without Hyland, this may soon get even better for VCU. The one biggest knock against the team is its lack of a single Quadrant 1 victory (0-3).
Historically, the tournament selection committee always leans toward teams with notable wins. Again, this is where the life of a mid-major proves to be difficult. Aside from Colgate (who did not play a non-conference schedule and is throwing the metrics awry) and San Diego State, VCU is the only team in the top 40 of the NET that does not have a Q1 win.
Of the bracketologists' projections above, Louisville, San Diego State and VCU are the only programs currently in the field as at-large teams without that key designation.
Fortunately for the Rams, without even playing better competition, some Q1 wins may be on the horizon. Beating St. Bonaventure in Richmond soon may change to a Q1 win, beating Utah State at a neutral site could some move up as well. Both wins are on the cusp of changing and could move up if a night's worth of results go the right way.
Bottom line, though, VCU cannot afford another 'bad' loss for the remainder of the season. That will only likely be in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament as the rest of its games are against quality opponents. If they avoid that, look for the Rams to return to the NCAA Tournament.
