Bringing a casino to Fairfax County would take years, if it happens — but the first step was just taken.
Virginia State Sen. Dave Marsden, D-Fairfax, has introduced a new bill that would allow the county to take the next steps in building a casino that could be large enough to rival MGM National Harbor. The bill would still need to be approved and signed by the governor.
Where would a casino go in Fairfax County?
If the idea of a casino in Fairfax County sounds familiar, that’s because Marsden introduced a similar bill last session but withdrew it. Now it’s back with a few changes, specifically about where the resort-style casino could be located.
For the past several months, some people in Reston have pushed back against a rumor that a casino would be built there.
“A casino just does not fit,” Lynne Mulston with the Reston Citizens Association told News4 in December. “Adding a casino to a neighborhood changes more than just one parcel."
Marsden's latest iteration of the bill removed Reston as an option. In fact, the bill’s language is so precise, there’s only one place in the county where a casino would be allowed: Tysons.
As it relates to location, the bill states:
“The eligible host locality described in subdivision A 6 shall be limited to a proposed site for a casino gaming establishment that is (i) located within one-quarter of a mile of an existing station on the Metro Silver Line, (ii) part of a coordinated mixed-use project development, (iii) outside of the Dulles airport flight path, (iv) within two miles of a major shopping destination containing not less than 1.5 million square feet of gross building area, and (v) outside of the Interstate 495 Beltway.”
When asked in December about the concern Reston citizens had, Marsden said, "I think Tysons is the right place to put [a casino]. We envision [Tysons] as our downtown and that's where an entertainment district belongs."
On Wednesday, Marsden specified that the language actually only allows the casino on one particular parcel in Tysons, on the site of a "defunct auto dealership on Route 7 in Tysons,” he said.
How would a casino in Fairfax County be approved (or rejected)?
With the location restricted by the bill, the biggest question left to answer is whether people in Fairfax County actually want a casino.
Marsden’s bill would first have to pass both chambers of Virginia’s General Assembly and then be signed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
News4 has reached out to Youngkin’s office to ask if he would support the bill. A spokesperson for Youngkin said the governor "will review any legislation that comes to his desk."
If signed by Youngkin, the bill would then go to the county level, where the county board would have to ask the commonwealth to conduct a referendum. The referendum would appear on a ballot during an election to ask Fairfax County voters if they support a casino.
If a majority of voters oppose it, the casino plan dies there. If voters approve it, it will go back to the county level, and developers would submit bids for the project and work to secure a casino operator to handle the gambling business.
'The county needs more revenue sources': Lawmakers eye Fairfax County casino proposal
An interested developer said on background that a casino alone isn’t their vision. This developer, who asked to remain anonymous given the early stages and competitiveness of such a large project, envisions a casino paired with a large convention center, hotels, restaurants, office space and residences. Some Fairfax County officials have previously opined their desire to have a convention center and/or entertainment venue.
This type of development is a gamble politically, but some lawmakers think a casino is a bet they must take.
“There’s a real need to try to figure out a way to help plug the property tax hole that’s going to happen,” State Sen. and Democratic Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, said in December.
Fairfax, much like the District of Columbia, has watched commercial real estate tax revenue plummet since the start of the pandemic. Businesses are leaving their rented office spaces and more employees are working from home, and that means few tax dollars to support county resources.
I don’t want anybody to say 10 years from now, ‘Gee, why didn’t somebody anticipate the changes in our revenue picture here in Fairfax County and make adjustments?’ What this bill does is just provide the citizens of Fairfax County with an option for a referendum to determine whether this is the direction they want to go in.
Virginia State Sen. Dave Marsden, D-Fairfax
If the money isn’t coming from commercial real estate, Surovell worried it would have to come from homeowners.
“If we want good schools,” Surovell said, “[the burden of offsetting lost tax revenue] is going to fall on homeowners so the county needs more revenue sources."
Not to mix two very different projects in different places, but this same point is one being made in support of Monumental Sports and Entertainment moving to Alexandria. While these types of developments may not have enticed elected officials in Alexandria nor Fairfax a decade ago, they are expected to get serious consideration in a post-pandemic financial environment.
“I am keeping an open mind until more facts are presented,” Fairfax County Board Chairman Jeff McKay said in a statement about Marsden's newest bill. “We need to know details such as how much revenue a casino would generate, where that revenue would go, and any other ways this could benefit county residents.”
Previous studies have concluded that a resort-style casino in Northern Virginia would yield significant amount of revenue. In 2019, a study by Virginia’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) projected a casino in Northern Virginia would generate $155 million annually in gambling revenue and add an estimated 4,400 new jobs.
When factoring in hotels, restaurants and the rest, JLARC estimated an additional $700 million for the state GDP annually. The study also said the commonwealth is currently losing about $100 million every year to Maryland casinos as Virginians venture across the Potomac River to gamble.
Marsden said he would prefer to keep that money in the commonwealth to support services funded by tax dollars.
“I don’t want anybody to say 10 years from now, ‘Gee, why didn’t somebody anticipate the changes in our revenue picture here in Fairfax County and make adjustments?’" Marsden said. "What this bill does is just provide the citizens of Fairfax County with an option for a referendum to determine whether this is the direction they want to go in.”
CORRECTION (Jan. 18, 2024, 2:45 p.m.): An earlier version of this story misstated the amount that JLARC estimated would be added to Virginia's GDP when adding in hotels, dining and other development.
