U.S. Flags on the front of the New York Stock Exchange hang behind the street signs making the corner of Wall and Broad Streets in the center of the financial district on October 24, 2024 in New York City.
Stock futures were moving higher Tuesday night as investors started to speculate that former President Donald Trump may have an edge in the presidential race.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 554 points, or about 1.3%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3%.
Bitcoin jumped to a record high, and the U.S. dollar — which was expected by Wall Street to rise in the event of a Trump win — was also rallying on Tuesday night. Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000, also a projected Trump beneficiary, jumped 3%.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, a social media company closely tied to the candidate, surged more than 30% in overnight trading on the Robinhood brokerage platform.
Americans cast their votes across the country in the tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. NBC News is projecting both candidates will win several states where they were heavy favorites entering the night, including Maryland for Harris and Florida for Trump, while the key swing states of Georgia and Pennsylvania remain too close to call. Follow CNBC's 2024 election live blog here.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients.
"I very much ascribe to that view that a Trump victory would be very good for stocks," Jason Trennert, chairman at Strategas, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "And I think a Harris victory would not be particularly good for risk assets."
Money Report
Trump's agenda of tax cuts could give Corporate America a tangible boost, but steep tariffs and a potential global trade war under his presidency could cause more uncertainty and a resurgence of inflation. In a Harris administration, the risk of tighter regulations could bring more scrutiny to industries such as banks and health care, while Democrats' support for clean energy could lift electric vehicle companies and solar firms.
Investors are also closely watching if the partisan makeup of the houses of Congress remains divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.
The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark's 2024 gains to more than 21%.
Bitcoin surges to a new record of $75,000 as traders bet Trump has election edge
Bitcoin rallied Tuesday evening hitting an all-time high as investors bet former President Donald Trump was gaining an edge in the U.S. election.
The price of the flagship cryptocurrency touched a record $75,000 on the nose, according to Coin Metrics. Its gains increased as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News.
Exchange operator Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy, advanced 4%.
For more on bitcoin's price action on election night read our full story here.
— Tanaya Macheel
10-year Treasury yield pops
Treasury yields jumped in early trading Tuesday evening as traders saw former President Donald Trump having an edge in the election.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 10 basis points to 4.30%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.
Even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News, traders speculated the early returns were favoring Trump.
Bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, moves that could widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.
"Bonds are selling off across the yield curve massively as the Trump trade gets applied again," wrote Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. "We see markets expecting a Trump victory and a real possibility of a Republican sweep."
— Yun Li
Investor anxiety tied to election can be put to rest, Tom Lee says
Fundstrat's Tom Lee is happy that Election Day is nearing its end.
The managing partner said there's underinvestment given "anxiety" around a "shock" to the market tied to the election. However, he said market participants can expect smooth waters regardless of who prevails in the presidential contest.
He also pointed to expectations of dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve during its policy meeting this week as another reason to be optimistic on the stock market.
— Alex Harring
Dollar index climbs 1%
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose about 1% on Tuesday night, indicating broad strength for the greenback in currency markets. The index is now trading near its recent highs from late October.
In general, the dollar is expected by Wall Street to rise if Former President Donald Trump wins the election, in part due to his tariff plans.
— Jesse Pound
Investors can turn focus to Fed if Congress appears split on election night
The market can "yawn" and then shift focus from the election to monetary policy if control of Congress appears split on Tuesday night, according to Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group's investing chief.
On Wednesday, investors' attention can turn to the Federal Reserve meeting this week if they know one party doesn't have control of both the executive and legislative branches, the CIO said. That meeting, he said, may end up being the more important event for markets this week.
Boockvar's comments come as investors wonder who will prevail in races across the country, as well as when they will actually be called.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 98% likelihood that the central bank lowers interest rates at its gathering this week, according to CME FedWatch tool. That would follow the Fed's cut in September, which marked the first decrease to rates since 2020.
— Alex Harring
A new high in bitcoin would be a signal of a Trump victory rally, IDX Advisors CIO says
Several of the market moves on Tuesday night have come in trades that Wall Street pros had identified as tied to a Trump victory, but it's still too early to interpret those moves, said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.
McMillan said that he was watching bitcoin most closely to gauge how traders were interpreting the election and a Trump victory would likely result in a new record high for the cryptocurrency.
"The level we're at now has been a strong resistance for bitcoin. It's kind of struggled since it set highs earlier this year. I think a new high — that would be meaningful to market participants," McMillan said.
Bitcoin is about 3% its all-time record, according to Coin Metrics.
— Jesse Pound
Treasury yields rising isn't a 'Trump trade,' Gary Cohn says
There are other reasons why Treasury yields have been shooting higher recently that don't have to do with the odds of former President Donald Trump going back to the White House, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn.
"We are renormalizing the yield curve. We're gonna have more and more demand for longer-dated maturities. The U.S. has a big maturity wall in some respects. … We're gonna need to roll out our debt," Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Trump, said Tuesday during a CNBC special.
"We've got an awful lot of corporate debt and real estate debt maturing in the next year or two. There's going to be demand on the yield curve, and we're going to go back to what I consider a normal positively shaped yield curve," he added.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared more than 70 basis points to 4.3% since Sept. 16 — when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points.
— Fred Imbert
The two most likeliest election outcomes are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,' strategist says
A Republican sweep and a Blue Gridlock are the likeliest election outcomes, according to BCA Research.
"The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,'" Irene Tunkel, chief strategist at BCA Research, wrote on Tuesday. "The Republican sweep will bring about protectionist trade policy and pro-growth domestic policies. Harris's victory will result in gridlock and will likely support the status quo, precluding any drastic policy actions."
In the event of a Trump win, Tunkel said she would upgrade regional banks and industrials. In the case of a Harris victory, technology and retail will get upgrades, the strategist wrote.
— Sarah Min
Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, investor says
Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, while the bond market gave consideration to a Harris victory, according to Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments.
"I am watching all the indicators," Tengler wrote. "[Tuesday's] market rally in stocks seemed indicative of a Trump victory. The bond market seemed to be hedging Harris according to our fixed income team."
Stocks during the regular session Tuesday rallied ahead of results from the U.S. presidential election, a sign the equity market is anticipating former President Donald Trump will win — an outcome investors expect will be positive for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 400 points, or 1%, and the S&P 500 advancing 1.2%.
On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell Tuesday, suggesting that a Harris win could continue to bring bond yields down from their highs. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, a move that suggested a Trump win would lead to a rise in the federal deficit.
"The measurable indicators seem to favor Trump," Tengler added.
— Sarah Min
Bitcoin jumps to session high above $71,000
Bitcoin jumped 5% Tuesday night as investors monitored the results of the U.S. presidential election.
The flagship cryptocurrency last changed hands at $71,199.30, according to Coin Metrics. It's now 3% off its all-time high, which it came in spitting distance of last week.
Shares of Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 3% and 5%, respectively, in after hours trading.
— Tanaya Macheel
Trump Media shares soar more than 20% in after-hours trading
Shares of Trump Media surged more than 20% after the bell as traders digested the first batch of U.S. presidential election results. The stock was down slightly earlier in the day after the Truth Social parent unexpectedly released its third-quarter figures.
— Fred Imbert
Futures jump as results begin to roll in
Stock futures made a solid move higher around 7:30 p.m. ET as states on the east coast began to report early results. Dow futures are now up more than 300 points.
— Jesse Pound
Tesla shares gain during Tuesday's regular session
Tesla shares closed up 3.5% in the regular session Tuesday, with the electric vehicle maker considered a key beneficiary of the U.S. presidential election regardless of the outcome.
CEO Elon Musk has actively campaigned for former President Donald Trump, spending tens of millions of dollars in support of the presidential candidate. However, Trump doesn't support federal spending in favor of electric vehicles that have bolstered Tesla in recent years.
Harris is expected to be more favorable for environmental regulation. However, she has proposed raising taxes for the wealthy, hiking the long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% from 20% for those earning more than $1 million a year.
— Sarah Min
Japan's Nikkei 225 jumps to kick off Asia trading
The Nikkei 225 traded 0.7% higher as investors around the world looked to the U.S. presidential election race. Year to date, the Nikkei has gained more than 15%.
— Fred Imbert
Trump Media reports third-quarter loss in surprise election day filing
Truth Social parent company Trump Media and Technology Group said Tuesday that it lost $19.2 million during the third quarter.
The company reported just $1 million in revenue for the quarter. The stock trades under the ticker DJT and appears to move more as a proxy for the former president's political strength than based on the direction of the underlying business.
The quarterly report was not telegraphed to investors ahead of time. Shares were up more than 6% in after hours trading.
"This has been an extraordinary quarter for the Company," CEO Devin Nunes said in a statement. Trump Media is continuing to "explore additional possibilities for growth."
— Jesse Pound
Jamie Dimon: This is a 'time to respect and uphold our democratic process'
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a statement on Tuesday that called for unity ahead of the U.S. presidential election results.
"Our country is now concluding one of the hardest fought and at times divisive elections in our recent history," Dimon said. "The American people are making their decision and soon it will be time for all of us to unite behind our President elect and all of our national leaders."
Dimon pressed for greater focus on economic and global issues while maintaining the democratic process during the election.
"We must begin the work of bringing our nation together and focusing on the pressing economic and global issues before us," his statement continued to read. "This is a time that requires all of us to find common ground and most importantly, a time to respect and uphold our democratic process. Our country is the envy of the world and if we can work together, we will ensure that it stays that way for generations to come."
— Pia Singh
Super Micro, Lumen Technologies fall after quarterly reports
Several technology stocks were under pressure in extended trading after reporting quarterly results.
- Super Micro — Shares of the server maker dropped 17% after the company's unaudited sales results for its fiscal first quarter came in short of expectations, as did guidance for the December quarter. Super Micro also said it has no timetable for when it will release its annual results. The stock tanked last week after the resignation of its auditing firm, Ernst & Young.
- Lumen Technologies — The tech stock slipped 4% after a third-quarter report that showed a wider-than-expected loss. Lumen said it had an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share during the three-month period, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for a loss of 9 cents.
- Microchip Technology — The semiconductor products stock fell more than 4% after the company's guidance for its fiscal third-quarter missed Wall Street expectations. Microchip said it expected adjusted earnings of 25 cents to 35 cents per share during its current quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had penciled in 46 cents per share.
— Jesse Pound
A definitive answer on the makeup of Congress on election day could help lift stocks higher, says Blue Line Capital's Bill Baruch
As investors await results for which party will occupy the White House on Tuesday, an answer on the makeup of Congress could help lift stocks on Wednesday, according to Blue Line Capital founder and president Bill Baruch.
"I think right now as you look at it [with] a split Congress [and] if we get an answer there tonight, I expect the market to be higher tomorrow," Baruch told CNBC's "Halftime Report" on Tuesday.
— Brian Evans
Futures open slightly higher
Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 were all modestly higher when trading began at 6 p.m. in New York on election night.
— Jesse Pound
