news

European markets head for mixed open as traders focus on Fed meeting this week

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on Nov. 7, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

This is CNBC's live blog covering European markets.

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Monday, as traders gear up for the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 4 points lower at 8,292, Germany's DAX up 36 points at 20,443, France's CAC down 1 point at 7,401 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 16 points at 34,876, according to data from IG.

The Fed's decision on Dec. 18 stateside is front and center for global markets this week, with the CME Fedwatch tool forecasting a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the central bank. Traders will be paying close attention to the updated policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about the trajectory for interest rates.

In Europe Monday, investors will be keeping an eye on Berlin where a vote of confidence will take place in parliament Monday. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to call on the German parliament today to declare it has no confidence in him in order for snap polls to take place in February. The move comes after his governing coalition collapsed last month.

Data releases include flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers' index data from France and Germany.

UK manufacturers' confidence drops due to high costs, budget

Confidence among U.K. manufacturers fell to its lowest level for a year in the fourth quarter amid intensifying cost pressures, according to a survey from trade group Make UK and advisory BDO.

Output and orders "remain positive" but sentiment "darkened markedly" from the third quarter, a period in which business confidence had jumped because of optimism about the new Labour government, Make UK and BDO found.

Glass bottles on the production line at the Encirc Glass factory in Chester, UK, on Friday, Oct. 4, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Glass bottles on the production line at the Encirc Glass factory in Chester, UK, on Friday, Oct. 4, 2024.

Since then, the announcement of Labour's flagship budget in late October is set to "add substantial extra business costs to those that companies were already facing," the survey authors wrote.

Among the key measures in the budget was an increase to the National Insurance payroll tax paid by employers, a move which has already sparked concern among wider British businesses. That brought the improvement in manufacturing confidence to a "shuddering halt," said Make UK senior economist, Fhaheen Khan.

The survey found 70% of manufacturers have seen their costs already increase by up to a fifth in the last year.

"An overlay of a turbulent geo-political landscape and talk of potential tariffs adds to future uncertainty in the short to medium term," said Richard Austin, head of manufacturing at BDO.

— Jenni Reid

Traders expect Fed to cut this week, pause in January

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday, but traders will be paying close attention to the updated policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about what comes next.

As of Sunday night, pricing in the Fed funds futures market pointed to a 95.3% likelihood of a rate cut this week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, traders are also betting that the Fed will pause its rate cutting cycle in January.

That could be a welcome move for investors who are still uneasy with the path of inflation.

Logan Moulton, portfolio manager at Intelligent Wealth Solutions, said inflation appears to be "stickier" than Fed officials previously thought and that there are risks to upward pressure on inflation when the Trump administration takes office.

"Heading into 2025, I think they should at least pause," Moulton said.

— Jesse Pound

CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley names 7 beneficiaries of Amazon AWS’ new Trainium 2 AI chip

Morgan Stanley has identified the companies that are set to benefit from Amazon's launch of its new artificial intelligence chip.

The Big Tech giant's cloud computing division Amazon Web Services launched its Trainium 2 AI chip earlier this month. AWS hopes these chips will help it diversify away from Nvidia, its primary AI chip supplier.

The investment bank said seven Taiwanese companies are set to benefit from AWS's new Trainium 2 AI chip.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

European markets: Here are the opening calls

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Monday.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 4 points lower at 8,292, Germany's DAX up 36 points at 20,443, France's CAC down 1 point at 7,401 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 16 points at 34,876, according to data from IG.

Data releases include flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers' index data from France and Germany.

— Holly Ellyatt

Copyright CNBC
Contact Us