Spring is almost here, which means we are eagerly awaiting the arrival of Washington D.C.’s treasured cherry blossoms.
The cherry blossoms entered the first phase of their blooming cycle on the first weekend of March. Weather patterns give us clues about when flowers will burst forth.
Storm Team4 Meteorologist Doug Kammerer projects peak bloom will begin on March 24.
The National Park Service says the projected peak bloom dates are March 23 to 26.
"Determining the dates for peak bloom is one of the great puzzles in the nation's capital," said Jeff Reinbold, the NPS' superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Parks. "Emerging from the warmest January on record, this has been a particularly puzzling year to read the trees and establish a projected date for peak bloom."
Due to the warmer-than-average temperatures, the trees never went fully dormant, which is what the NPS uses to calculate peak bloom. In addition, the NPS' designated "indicator tree" has been showing several different bloom phases, reflecting the wide range of temperatures we've been getting.
"We're seeing the effects of both warmer and highly variable temperatures on the trees," Reinbold said.
Cherry Blossom Festival
Peak bloom is declared when 70% of the blossoms on the Tidal Basin’s cherry trees are out. If weather conditions are good, peak bloom can last as long as 10 days.
The cherry trees that Japan gave to the United States more than 100 years ago draw visitors from around the world.
How does Storm Team4 predict peak bloom?
The cherry trees have to complete a long journey before peak bloom, and weather plays a huge role in how quickly the flowers grow.
Cherry blossoms bloom in stages: green bud, florets visible, extension of florets, peduncle elongation and puffy white all come before the full bloom.
Last year, D.C.’s famed trees had green beds as of Feb. 23, and peak bloom was called on March 23. But we don’t have those green buds yet for 2024.
While we’re running a little behind schedule, Kammerer says, overall, expect a similar trend to last year.
“We're going to be very warm in early March,” Kammerer said. “So, we'll get to the bud stage, and then we'll get to the next stage fairly quickly.”
But a cool-down in mid-March could slow down peak bloom – just like it did last year. Keep an eye out for warm weather, too, which could rapidly push the blossoms into the next stage.
Last year, we reached peak bloom on March 23, which is still on the early side.
The most common time for peak bloom is between the last week of March and the first week of April, according to the NPS.
